FlourSightIntelligence Behind Every Grain
Reference β€” Jul 2026
Global Flour & Wheat Intelligence
UAE strategic decision dashboard Β· ADAFSA Β· Panel brief β€” Jul 2026
Food Security β€Ί Wheat & Flour β€Ί Global-to-UAE intelligence
From the world balance sheet to the UAE loaf

A decision-maker's view of who grows, ships and buys wheat & flour β€” where the UAE sits in that map, the live risks and opportunities moving price and quantity, the forward outlook, and what the panel recommends the UAE do next.

Official β€” internal review onlyInterim build Β· not an official ADAFSA system

Interim reference build on private infrastructure (khamis.tech). Figures are reference/indicative pending ADAFSA data-platform integration.

🌍
!β–² +5.5%
843.8 MMT
World wheat production 2025/26 β€” a record crop
Yet exporter stocks stay tight (~11.3%).
πŸ“Š
!β–² +1.7pt
33.8%
Global stocks-to-use 2025/26
Comfortable headline β€” China holds ~Β½ of it.
πŸ’΅
!2-yr high
~$6.75/bu
CBOT wheat, mid-Jul 2026 (β‰ˆ $250/t)
Firmed on Black Sea & Hormuz risk.
πŸ‡¦πŸ‡ͺ
!~0% grown
1.87 MMT
UAE wheat imports MY2024/25 (~1% of world trade)
100% of wheat imported; ~3.8 mo cover.
🚒
!~flat
216.5 MMT
World wheat exports 2025/26 (~26% of the crop)
Broadly flat while output hit a record β€” exporters stay tight.

The global wheat map

Production is concentrated in a handful of giants; exports in even fewer. Toggle the ranking to see who grows, who sells, and who buys.

β—† What the global picture means for the UAE

Thin market, priced by exportersOnly ~26% of the crop is traded and exporter stocks are ~11.3% β€” the UAE pays the exporters' tight price, not the easy global one.
Concentrated & chokepoint-exposedTop-5 exporters β‰ˆ73% of trade; Russia β‰ˆ43% of UAE imports routes via the Black Sea & Hormuz. Cap any single origin at 30–35%.
Triggers, then coverlive status β†’Forward-cover 3–6 months on the price rule β€” HRW back into $250–265/t β€” or on the calendar, whichever binds first. The rule has been out of the money since June; the first tender still closes 30 September 2026.

Who leads β€” top 10 (MMT)

Source: USDA FAS totals; country-to-country splits are indicative (real trade patterns), Jul 2026 [R1].

World supply balance (MMT)

Production vs consumption vs ending stocks

ProductionConsumptionEnding stock (carryover)
β—†
Ending stock β‰  the gap between the tall bars. It's a cumulative carryover: Ending = Beginning + Production βˆ’ Consumption. This year's net is just +19 MMT (a small build), which is why the level (260β†’279) barely moves.

Stocks-to-use β€” the tightness gauge

Headline is easy; the exporter number is what sets import prices

Wheat price trend β€” FOB / futures (US$)

Bottomed on record 2024/25 supply, firmed mid-2026 on conflict risk

CBOT wheat US$/t (β‰ˆ)Russian 12.5% FOB US$/t
CBOT ~$6.75/bu β‰ˆ $250/t (22 Jul 2026); Russian 12.5% FOB $235–241/t; US HRW Gulf ~$255–270/t; MATIF €191/t (Apr, dated) [R6][R8][R9].

Wheat flour trade (HS 1101) β€” distinct from grain

Only ~4% of wheat crosses borders as flour, but it is where milling value sits

β—†
Grain β‰  flour β€” not a contradiction. Russia is #1 in raw grain; TΓΌrkiye is #1 in flour β€” it imports (largely Russian) grain and re-exports it milled, capturing the value-add. Two products, two value stages. This is the model behind the UAE's mill-and-re-export ambition.
Flour is folded into grain-equivalent by USDA; standalone HS 1101 from trade databases, 2024 [R2][R3][R4][R5]. Flour trade projected at a ~5-year high for 2025/26.

Trade concentration & chokepoints

A thin, few-seller market routed through a handful of straits

73%Top-5 exporters' share of world trade
~1,300HHI β€” moderately concentrated
~26%Of the crop that is traded at all
Source: USDA FAS trade shares 2025/26; chokepoint status indicative (Jul 2026), FlourSight analysis.

Demand engine β€” who eats it

Top consumers, and why comfortable stocks overstate availability

β—†
China holds ~51% of world ending stocks β€” kept for its own security, not offered to the market. Strip it out and the tradable cushion is far thinner.
Source: USDA PSD consumption & ending stocks 2025/26 [R1].

Farm-to-flour cost build ($/t flour, indicative)

Where the delivered price comes from β€” the same build the subsidy engine computes

β—†
Milling margin β‰ˆ $40/t (~9%) β€” thin; wheat is ~75% of cost, so a $20/t wheat move is a ~5% cost shock. Energy and freight do the rest.
Indicative build at ~$250/t wheat, ~76% extraction; methodology mirrors the FlourSight subsidy engine. Re-verify at decision.

Wheat futures curve β€” carry vs scarcity

The shape tells you what the market prices ahead

β—†
Mild contango (+$12/t Sep→Jul) — the market pays to carry; no acute near-term scarcity is priced yet. A Black Sea or Hormuz shock would flip it to backwardation (nearby bid over deferred).
Indicative CBOT-style forward curve (Jul 2026); illustrative levels. Re-verify at decision.

Scenario stress test

Pick a shock β€” the market re-prices and the UAE's exposure updates

Tip: click more than one shock to stack them (e.g. Black Sea + Hormuz).

Indicative stress deltas on ~$250/t base Γ— 1.87 MMT; stacked shocks add linearly (indicative). Illustrative, not a forecast. Re-verify at decision.

Who controls the chain

From field to loaf β€” and where the power concentrates

β—†
4 traders (ABCD) move ~70–90% of global grain β€” ADM, Bunge, Cargill & Louis Dreyfus. Milling value concentrates too: TΓΌrkiye alone is ~25% of world flour exports; the UAE mills ~1.67 MMT/yr as a re-export node.
Industry estimates (ABCD share); USDA milling data. Indicative.

Data confidence & vintage

What's hard data, what's a forecast, and what's an illustrative model β€” so you know how far to lean on each number

Actual
Hard data β€” USDA / IGC / FAO & trade DBs: production, stocks, trade shares, consumption.
Forecast
Agency projections β€” the 26/27 outlook and price direction; read as a range, not a point.
Indicative
Illustrative models β€” cost build, futures curve, scenario deltas; directional, re-verify at decision.
β—†
Forecast reliability: USDA publishes its own July track record β€” RMSE 2.7% on world production, 9.1% on ending stocks. On an 820 MMT central that is a 2-in-3 band 44 MMT wide. Agencies sit 806.5–821 today, but agreement between forecasters measures agreement, not accuracy. see the error band β†’ Market prices & scenario deltas move daily. As of Jul 2026 Β· reference snapshot β€” not a live ADAFSA feed.