Global Flour & Wheat Intelligence
UAE strategic decision dashboard · ADAFSA · Panel brief — Jul 2026
From the world balance sheet to the UAE loaf
A decision-maker's view of who grows, ships and buys wheat & flour — where the UAE sits in that map, the live risks and opportunities moving price and quantity, the forward outlook, and what the panel recommends the UAE do next.
Official — internal review onlyInterim build · not an official ADAFSA system
Interim reference build on private infrastructure (khamis.tech). Figures are reference/indicative pending ADAFSA data-platform integration.
🌍
!▲ +5.5%
843.8 MMT
World wheat production 2025/26 — a record crop
Yet exporter stocks stay tight (~11.3%).
📊
!▲ +1.7pt
33.8%
Global stocks-to-use 2025/26
Comfortable headline — China holds ~½ of it.
💵
!2-yr high
~$6.75/bu
CBOT wheat, mid-Jul 2026 (≈ $250/t)
Firmed on Black Sea & Hormuz risk.
🇦🇪
!~0% grown
1.87 MMT
UAE wheat imports MY2024/25 (~1% of world trade)
100% of wheat imported; ~3.8 mo cover.
🚢
!~flat
216.5 MMT
World wheat exports 2025/26 (~26% of the crop)
Broadly flat while output hit a record — exporters stay tight.
Decision requested
Delegate standing authority to execute the pre-agreed response at Alert — without returning for approval.
If declined: the board keeps measuring and nothing executes — which is the position we are in today.
Market conditions we are buying into
ALERT
— at Alert or worse ·
— at Crisis
— wired to a live feed · ~3.8 mo cover
— wired to a live feed · ~3.8 mo cover
as of 26 Jul 2026 · verdict = the highest single tier reached, never an average
Reason 1 — the response layer
— fired, none actioned
Every trigger below has a threshold and a live reading. Not one has ever released a move, because until now nothing was measuring them. The gap is the response layer, not the data.
Reason 2 — the unowned rule
$35–51/t out of the money
The forward-cover rule is published on the Global tab, the Overview and Actions. It has never had an owner or a live reading — which is how a June buy-signal survived into July’s rally.
Reason 3 — availability, not cost
Hormuz has no sea reroute
The Red Sea costs money and can be rerouted around. Hormuz costs landside capacity and cannot. Routing has to be pre-cleared before a closure, not negotiated during one.
Evidence — the 14 triggers behind the 3 reasons above
14 triggers, and only 8 are wired to a live feed
Worst first within each group. Grouped by what a response spends — money and capacity, or policy. Each row ends in the move it releases; hover a move code for its title.
Readings: USDA WASDE Jul 2026; IMF PortWatch (baseline 1 Jan 2022 – 6 Oct 2023); IGC GOFI (index, 1 Jan 2013 = 100); IFPRI export-restrictions tracker. Tier bands are FlourSight proposals, adopted by no authority. Tier labels describe a market signal — not a declared national emergency.
The forward-cover trigger promised on two tabs is out of the money, and widening
US HRW, FOB Gulf, $/t — the band the Global tab publishes, measured here for the first time
◆
What broke in June. The buy call was written on June data, and Russia’s floating duty is computed off a 60-day trailing price — so a zero duty printing into a rallying market confirmed last month’s softness, it did not signal a forward buy. A signal built on the 11 Jun WASDE should have expired at the 10 Jul WASDE. It did not, and July happened.
Derived, indicative: KC Sep $7.45¼/bu (24 Jul 2026) plus a FOB Gulf basis last published Apr 2026 — re-verify the basis before this drives a purchase. Conversion 36.7437 bu/t, so $250–265/t = $6.80–7.21/bu. The band is a FlourSight proposal, not an adopted target.
Hormuz cannot be rerouted, the Red Sea can — so they need different triggers
War-risk premium, % of hull value
Premia: Marsh via The National, 17 Jul 2026; S&P Global via Al Jazeera, 23 Jul 2026. Kiel Institute PB 206 models a full Hormuz closure at +4.24% on wheat ≈ ~$11/t — the insurance on the last leg can exceed the entire modelled commodity effect. Per-tonne figures derived; indicative.
Impact against likelihood — and two drivers moved the right way this month
Likelihood = probability the driver is still at this severity in 90 days. Analyst assignment, proposed.
RiskMixedOpportunity
Positions are FlourSight analyst assignments against the readings on the trigger board — not a published index. The old severity radar could not draw an improvement; the Red Sea and fertiliser both eased this month.
Every opportunity is a dated instrument — and two have already expired
An opportunity without an expiry is how a stale buy-signal survives a rally
Russian duty publishes Fridays, effective the following Wednesday; India’s relaxation is licensed and non-transferable. Expiries are the instrument’s own, not our estimate.
11 drivers, priced in our units — tonnes, dollars a year, months of cover
1 month of cover ≈ 147k MT · imports ~1.87 MMT/yr · every +$25/t ≈ +$48M/yr on the subsidy line
Named source and cadence per row. The widely-quoted “~70% of food imports” figure circulates attached to two different chokepoints and has been removed; the GCC-specific split is single-source and labelled indicative.
◆ Alert must require no new approval — that single line is the whole reform
Escalation states and de-activation follow the IEA activation pattern; ALPS naming per WFP. Authorities and owners are FlourSight proposals pending ADAFSA adoption.